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Double Top Chart Pattern: Key Strategies for Bearish Reversals

Double top chart patterns are renowned for their reliability in predicting bearish reversals. This comprehensive guide will explore how to identify and effectively trade this pattern to optimise your trading outcomes.

What is a Double Top Chart Pattern? 

Double top chart patterns are highly regarded bearish technical reversal patterns that emerge when a financial asset reaches a high price on two separate occasions, and sees a sell-off both times from the highs.

It signifies a shift in momentum and is confirmed when the asset price drops below a support level that aligns with the low point between the two previous highs. This pattern consists of two peaks, creating a potential trend reversal signal.

Remember: both peaks don’t have to be exactly the same. Sometimes, the first peak goes higher; sometimes, the second peak goes higher; sometimes, they are exactly the same!

The important thing is that there are two peaks around the same price level, creating a significant rejection to the downside and forming an “M pattern.”

When price moves back down through the level the second peak bounced from, it has broken the ‘neckline’.

For the double top pattern to play out correctly, price should then continue in a downward direction toward the measured move – which is the distance from the highest peak to the neckline, mirrored below the neckline as shown in the image below. 

Let’s look at some other vital characteristics of the double top. 

Characteristics of a Double Top Pattern

Formation: Consists of two consecutive peaks of similar height, followed by a break below support level. Can sometimes be confused with the head and shoulders pattern.

Psychology: Bulls were unable to push the price past a certain point on two occasions, leading to buyer exhaustion and an eventual collapse in price.

Confirmation: The pattern is confirmed when the price falls and closes below the support level, known as the neckline.

Examples of Double Top Patterns

As you can see, no two double tops are the same. They can appear on all timeframes, marking the peaks of uptrends and downtrends as a consolidation to continuation pattern, or have mini-double tops inside the larger double tops – such as in our USOIL example. 

Let’s take a closer look.

Case Study: Daily Double Top on BTC/USD

Understanding real-life instances of double top patterns can significantly enhance your ability to spot and trade them. Let’s look at a great example – the most famous and recent Double Top pattern on Bitcoin. 

From 2020 to 2021, Bitcoin experienced a massive bull run from a mere $5,000 dollars to nearly $70,000!

The double top pattern we are looking at occurs when the first peak hit $67,000 and the second peak reached $69,000. Once Bitcoin broke the neckline support at $58,000, it fell all the way to $15,460 – a massive bearish reversal that has devastated many, but not if you were wise to the double top bearish reversal pattern.

Notice first how after Bitcoin formed its first peak, it retraced all the way to $58,000 forming the first leg down (downside of first peak). For experienced traders looking for a double top pattern at the highs, this was the first warning sign that a double top could be at play.  

Once it got rejected from similar highs in the second peak – waiting for a neckline break would have been an exciting prospect for short-sellers.

How Can You Trade Double Tops? 

Trading double tops is a great strategy for any trader – and there are many ways to do so. The most beginner-friendly way is by first observing the pattern, then only entering a short trade when the double top signals a confirmation of a breakout.

There are many ways to confirm the breakout, but the most basic method is to wait for a candle to close under the neckline.

Method One: Wait for a Close Below the Neckline

To trade the double top pattern effectively, start by identifying the first peak when the price reaches a new high and then begins to decline. After a brief recovery, observe the second peak, noting whether the price attempts to reach a new high. 

This second peak may match, exceed, or fall just short of the first, but what’s important is recognising signs of exhaustion in the price action – ask yourself, is the price struggling to push higher?

Once the price begins to fall again, wait for confirmation of the pattern by watching for a break below the neckline. 

A decisive close below this support level signals the formation of the double top and presents an opportunity to look for short entries.

Our 1:2 partials risk-to-reward (RR) setup may seem a bit unconventional for trading a double top, but it addresses a few critical issues that beginners often face. 

This approach involves setting two take-profit (TP) levels. First, set a partial TP at 1:1, which can be 50% or 75% of your position. Then, move your stop loss to your entry and set a second TP at 1:2.

The partial TP allows us to remain in profit, even if the second target isn’t reached. If both targets are reached, this setup is effectively a 1.5 RR trade, which allows us to remain at breakeven with a 40% win rate.

With a 1:1 risk-to-reward (RR) ratio, you’d need a 50% win rate just to break even, with potential losses from commissions and spreads. 

This strategy helps you strike a strong balance between the win rate and profitability across a series of trades.

Trading Strategy Summary:

  • Entry Point: Set a short limit position at the neckline once the price breaks below the neckline. Wait patiently for it to return. If it goes without you, DO NOT chase price action. 
  • Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss just above the second peak to minimise potential losses.
  • Profit Target: Set take profits at the measured move target of 1:1, and at a fixed 1:2 risk-to-reward (RR) away. 
Advantages: Ensures profitability even with a lower win rate, balances risk and reward with a combination of conservative and aggressive profit targets.
Disadvantages: Potential missed profits if price continues to move beyond the 1:2 TP, requires managing multiple exits, which can complicate trade execution.

Method Two: Trading Double Top with RSI Divergence

To take a more aggressive approach to trading the double top pattern, carefully monitor the price as it declines from the second peak. 

The key is to recognise when the price drops below the level of the first peak, indicating weakening momentum. 

At this stage, indicators such as RSI divergence and volume can hint at the potential formation of a double top. RSI divergence, in particular, suggests that buying pressure is weakening, even if the price continues to rise, offering early confirmation of a potential reversal. We can see this through bearish divergence.

This early indication allows traders to enter a short trade as the price moves toward the neckline. By taking partial profits at the neckline, traders can reduce risk and potentially hold the remaining position without further risk, having already locked in gains.

Traders can also look for a secondary entry on a break of the neckline or during a retest of the neckline for additional opportunities to capitalise on the downward move. 

As always, proper stop-loss placement just above the second peak is essential to protect against a potential rebound or invalidation of the bearish pattern.

Since this strategy is more aggressive, utilising stop-losses and sound risk management is crucial. In case the bearish divergence does not play out, and the price forms a Triple Top or Rising Wedge instead, risking less on such trades can safeguard your capital.

Another way to minimise risk, is to take profits off at 2RR, 3RR, 4RR and 5RR – or to trail your stops on the way to the full extended move at the horizontal support market out (5.7RR).

Trading Strategy:

  • Entry Point: Initiate a short trade immediately when the price descends below the height of the first peak during the formation of the second peak.
  • Stop-Loss: Set the stop-loss slightly above the second peak to minimise exposure to sudden market moves.
  • Profit Target: Have set profit targets at regular intervals towards the target horizontal support/liquidity. In this case, 2RR, 3RR, 4RR, 5RR and 5.7RR (swing low target) 
Advantages: Early entry allows for potentially larger profits by capturing the full downward move.RSI divergence provides additional confirmation of weakening momentum, enhancing trade confidence.
Disadvantages: Higher risk of a false move if the bearish divergence does not play out, requires more active management and risk control due to the early and aggressive entry.

Closing Thoughts on the Double Top Pattern

The Double Top formation is a classic bearish chart pattern that every trader should know about. It not only signals a great shorting opportunity, but alerts traders in long positions to exit their positions.

Here are some advantages and disadvantages to keep in mind when trading this pattern.

Advantages of Trading the Double Top

  • Reliable Reversal Signal: The double top pattern is highly regarded for its ability to indicate a potential reversal within a strong uptrend, offering traders a clear signal to consider exiting long positions or entering short ones.
  • Volume Confirmation: Observing trading volumes can provide additional confirmation. Increased volume at the first peak and diminished volume at the second peak suggest weakening upward momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal.
  • Technical Indicator Support: Incorporating indicators like RSI or Bollinger Bands can further enhance the reliability of the pattern by identifying momentum shifts or divergences that support the double top’s bearish implications.

Disadvantages of Trading the Double Top

  • Risk of False Breakouts: The pattern may sometimes present false signals, particularly if the neckline break lacks a decisive close, leading to potential losses if the price action reverses unexpectedly.
  • Limited Reward Potential: Although reliable, the double top pattern does not always offer the largest risk-to-reward setups, which may limit profit potential compared to other trading strategies.
  • Breakouts May Not Be Clean: After breaking the neckline, the price may fluctuate unpredictably, wicking back and forth/consolidating near the neckline, making it hard to confirm the double top breakout.

A great trader has many strategies in their playbook. Now, you have another powerful tool in your trading arsenal! Use the double top pattern to spot and trade potential reversals – and get funded up to $400k in starting capital while you do! 

FAQs

What is a Double Bottom Pattern and is it like the Double Top?

A double bottom pattern is the opposite of a double top and is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs after an extended downtrend. This pattern consists of two consecutive lows of similar depth, followed by a breakout above a key resistance level. It signals a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish and is confirmed when the price breaks above the resistance level.

How is the Double Bottom Pattern Formed?

The double bottom formation starts when the price reaches a low, rebounds, and then declines again to a similar level before making a more sustained move higher. The pattern forms when the price fails to break lower on the second dip, indicating that sellers are losing control, and buyers are beginning to take over. The double bottom formation is confirmed once the price breaks above the previous resistance level formed by the peak between the two lows.

What are the similarities between Double Tops and Double Bottoms?

Both double top and double bottom patterns are recurring patterns in technical analysis that signal a trend reversal. While a double top indicates a potential shift from a bullish to a bearish trend, a double bottom signals a shift from bearish to bullish. Both patterns involve the price reaching similar highs or lows twice before breaking through a significant support or resistance level.

The Trader’s Guide to Smart Money Concepts

In trading, it’s often said that there is Smart Money and Dumb Money.

Smart Money refers to large institutional players like banks and hedge funds. These groups have access to substantial capital and the influence to move markets. 

They can operate in ways that retail traders, often called Dumb Money, cannot. Retail traders lack the influential power and financial resources to significantly affect market prices, unlike Smart Money.

Learning Smart Money Concepts (SMC) is intended to help retail traders trade in the same direction as Smart Money and, therefore, follow the underlying trend and pivots in the market. These concepts help us, the dumb money, understand how Smart Money operates so we can align our strategies with the market’s biggest players and better follow their movements.

What are Smart Money Concepts in Trading?

Smart Money Concepts (SMC) is a guiding framework traders use to understand how institutional players like banks and hedge funds operate. These concepts help retail traders anticipate market movements by analysing liquidity, market structure, and price imbalances created by big players. 

The name also derives from the belief how there is smart money, and dumb money in the financial market. Smart money refers to big players like banks and hedge funds with resources and market influence, while dumb money refers to retail traders with limited funds and influence.

Understanding Smart Money Concepts

Understanding Smart Money Concepts (SMC) helps retail traders like ourselves learn to swim with the current rather than against it. If you’re trading without understanding how “smart money” moves, you risk swimming against the tide and being swept away. 

By mastering SMC, you gain insight into how major players like banks and institutions trade, giving you a market edge.

That said, it’s important to note that while SMC is proclaimed to reflect how institutional traders operate, this idea is debated. Many former institutional traders argue that the concept is exaggerated or inaccurate. 

However, SMC has rapidly gained traction in the past few years and remains a widely used approach, with many traders around the world successfully using it.

In this guide, we’ll break down key Smart Money Concepts, so you can start applying them in your trading, even if you’re a beginner.

The Origins of Smart Money Concepts

The theory of SMC originates from classic market cycle theories, namely the Wyckoff Accumulation Theory, created by Richard Wyckoff.

Wyckoff believed that the market moves in cycles, much like the ocean’s changing tides. These cycles move between phases, from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase.

Distribution and accumulation refer to phases in the market where institutions buy or sell large quantities of assets. Think of it like restocking shelves before a big sale (accumulation) or clearing them out (distribution). 

‘Markups’ are transition periods where the price sharply moves pivots from accumulation to distribution. ‘Markdowns’ refer to the reverse, where price moves from distribution to accumulation (markdown). Some traders also refer to this as the ‘manipulation’ phase.

These phases create supply and demand zones that influence price action. For example, smart money tends to pick up stocks at demand zones where retail traders may be fearful and sell instead. Conversely, smart money will value selling at supply zones, where retail tends to buy at high prices, giving Smart Money the opportunity to sell.

Understanding these phases can help you anticipate where major market moves may occur.

Traders utilise SMC as a framework to interpret these market dynamics, allowing them to anticipate price action and enter trades in the assumed direction of the smart money. Let’s dive deeper into how traders use SMC to their advantage. 

Core Elements of Smart Money Concepts

Smart Money Concepts are made up of five main ideas: Order Blocks, Liquidity Pools, Fair Value Gaps, Break Of Structure (BOS), and Change of Character (CHoCH). 

What are Order Blocks?

Order blocks represent zones where large institutions – like hedge funds or banks – have placed significant buy or sell orders. These zones create key areas of support or resistance because institutional players are moving large amounts of money in or out of the market. Price tends to respect these areas, either reversing or pausing at them before continuing in its direction.

How to Identify and Use Order Blocks in Trading

To identify an order block, look for the last bullish or bearish candle before a strong move in the opposite direction. Let’s look at an example on the 4h chart for EUR/USD.

We see two down-closed candles (bearish) take out the low before a sharp reversal. The third candle in this sequence (bullish) closes ABOVE the open of the candle that formed the beginning of the order block. 

To establish a bullish order block (support), identify the last bearish candle before a significant price increase—as highlighted by the yellow box. Then, using that candle body close, we will mark out the order block’s range low.

Here’s another example on EUR/USD 4h on April 18, 2024.

Ideally, the order block’s last candle should form the swing low, the lowest point before the market reverses upwards.

To establish a bearish order block (resistance), find the last bullish candle before a major price drop. Then, use the candle body’s opening and closing prices to mark out the order block’s highs and lows. For example, this bearish order block formed when we had a large bearish candle close below the last bullish candle, as highlighted in the image.

Liquidity Pools/Draw on Liquidity

Liquidity Pools refer to areas in the market where orders are concentrated- often around obvious levels like recent highs, lows, or consolidation zones. 

When traders place stop-loss orders around the same levels, it creates a cluster of orders known as a liquidity pool. Institutional traders exploit these pools by driving the price to trigger stop-losses, gaining liquidity, and then reversing the price in their intended direction.

Institutional traders target these areas because they can execute large orders without causing wild price swings.

Strategies to Identify and Trade Liquidity

To identify liquidity pools, look for areas where price has previously made sharp movements – often near key highs or lows. 

Key Highs are price levels where the market has previously peaked before reversing. Traders often set stop-loss orders just above these levels, expecting the price to fall once it reaches this point again.

Key Lows are price levels where the market has bottomed out before bouncing back. Retail traders typically place stop-losses below these levels, hoping to protect their positions from further declines.

When prices drop to key lows, many retail traders enter a trade and place their stop-losses just below—just like in the previous concept of liquidity pools. Smart money, aware of this, may manipulate prices downward to trigger these stops, creating a liquidity grab. 

Once these stops are hit, retail traders are forced to sell, providing opportunities for smart money to buy or enter long positions.

As the liquidity pool is drained, smart money reverses the market direction, often sharply pushing the price back up, leaving retail traders scrambling after being forced out of their trades.

This aggressive move to take liquidity is sometimes referred to as a “Draw on Liquidity” within SMC circles.

This concept tells us to not set your stops at obvious levels; wait until institutional traders have taken the level, and then look for your trade set-up. 

Fair Value Gaps

Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are areas on a price chart where the price moves so quickly that it leaves a liquidity gap. In SMC trading, these gaps are seen as areas of interest for institutional traders, acting as hidden support or resistance zones.

Imagine a crowded street. Suddenly, everyone moves to one side, leaving a space in the middle. That space—the FVG—eventually gets filled as people move back. The same happens in the market: price tends to fill these gaps over time as the market seeks balance.

How to Identify and Use Fair Value Gaps

A Fair Value Gap appears when a candle’s wicks don’t overlap with the previous one, showing an imbalance in buying and selling. A quick tip in looking for a Fair Value Gap is to look for three candlesticks moving towards the same direction, as they have a higher likelihood of forming a gap.

When a Fair Value Gap (FVG) forms after the price moves higher, it is considered a ‘Bullish Fair Value Gap’. Price may return to this gap later to “fill” it before continuing higher. Notice how in the example below, the price retraced to the FVG and did not close below. This signals a potential bounce from the FVG.


In a bearish trend, a fair value gap can appear after a sharp price drop. Price may retrace to fill the gap before resuming its downward move. Notice how the candles following this bearish FVG never close inside—the wicks get rejected four times!



How to Trade Fair Value Gaps

When trading fair value gaps, the idea is to look for price retracements to fill the gap, offering a potential entry point as long as the price does not pierce through the Fair Value Gap with a closing candle.

For example, after spotting a gap in a bullish trend, you could enter a long position when the price starts retracing toward the gap. Set your stop-loss below the gap and target the next swing high or a fixed risk-to-reward (RR) for your take-profit.

Kill Zones and When to Trade SMC Concepts

Smart Money Concepts (SMC) traders often focus on specific market sessions called kill zones. These are periods where there’s heightened market activity, usually due to overlapping time zones of major financial centres, which leads to increased volatility. Traders can use these time windows to sharpen their entries and capitalise on short-term moves.

Due to the increased liquidity and volatility, kill zones are an ideal time for finding precise trade entries with Smart Money Concepts. As institutional players become more active, price movements become sharper, allowing SMC traders to execute better strategies such as liquidity grabs, fair value gap retracements, and order block reactions.

Scalping during these periods is especially effective, as the volatility within kill zones often leads to quicker price swings and more predictable short-term setups. For traders focused on faster timeframes, like 1-minute or 5-minute charts, kill zones offer the best opportunity to capture these rapid price movements.

Below are the kill zones SMC traders like to trade within:

ASIAN KILL ZONE08:00 PM – 10:00 PM (UTC-4)
LONDON KILL ZONE02:00 AM – 05:00 AM (UTC-4)
NEW YORK KILL ZONE07:00 AM – 09:00 AM (UTC-4)
LONDON CLOSE KILL ZONE10:00 AM – 12:00 PM (UTC-4)

Break of Structure (BOS)

A Break of Structure (BOS) happens when the price breaks past a previous high or low, confirming that the trend is continuing. When a previous high is broken, it’s considered a Bullish BOS. When a previous low is broken, it’s a Bearish BOS. 

How to Identify BOS 

To identify a BOS (Break of Structure) in an uptrend, look for the price breaking above the previous swing high. This confirms a continuation of the trend. Specifically, wait for a candle to close above the prior high to validate the break. In a downtrend, look for the break below the swing low. 

Using BOS in Trading 

When you spot a break of structure (BOS), it signals that the market is likely to continue in the same direction. For instance, if the price breaks a previous high in an uptrend, it’s a sign to either hold onto your position or consider entering a new one in line with the trend.

Change of Character (ChoCH)

While BOS signals continuation, a Change of Character (CHOCH) signals a potential reversal. CHOCH shows that the market may be losing its current momentum and could be about to change direction.

How to Identify CHOCH

In an uptrend, price makes higher highs and higher lows. A CHOCH occurs when the price fails to maintain that pattern, usually by breaking below a recent low. This is a warning sign that the trend may reverse or move into a consolidation phase. The reverse is true during a downtrend, where the market makes lower highs and lower lows, but a CHOCH occurs when a higher high is created.

Using CHOCH in Trading 

A CHOCH signals the potential for a trend reversal, telling traders it might be time to rethink their positions. For instance, if you’re in a long position during an uptrend and see a CHOCH (price breaks below a recent low), it could be time to exit or prepare for a downtrend.

Let’s examine some more advanced strategies SMC traders use to capitalise on future price movements.

How Smart Money Concepts Work Together & How You Can Trade Them

Smart Money Concepts (SMC) aren’t meant to be used all at once in every trade. Instead, they offer flexible tools that traders can combine, adjust, and deploy according to your strategy, timeframe, and asset. 

Each SMC concept – like the bullish order block, Fair Value Gap (FVG), or Change of Character (CHOCH) – can individually offer valid entry or exit points. For instance, you might enter a trade using a bullish order block and set your target at an FVG resistance level. 

Alternatively, some traders may opt to scalp trades off a single CHOCH on lower time frames, while others might wait for multiple concepts to align on a higher timeframe for more confirmation.

The key advantage of SMC is its adaptability. You don’t need to apply every concept at once, but when several concepts do align – such as an order block, FVG, and CHOCH all indicating the same trend – your confidence in the trade can significantly increase. 

The more concepts that stack up in the same direction, the stronger the trade setup becomes.

Ultimately, it’s up to you as the trader to figure out which concepts and combinations work best for your unique strategy, the asset you’re trading, and the timeframe you’re focusing on.

Let’s dive into a few ways you could approach SMC in your trading. 

Trade Strategy #1: Order Block and FVG Combo

For this strategy, we’ll combine a bearish order block and a Fair Value Gap (FVG) to enter a high-probability short trade. 

Using EUR/USD on the 5-minute chart from September 11th, 2024, we’ll see how Smart Money Concepts (SMC) align to provide precise trade entries during key market hours.

On this day, within the New York kill zone, we observe an aggressive price drop that creates a bearish order block. This order block is created as price sweeps the liquidity above recent highs, forming a strong confluence area for a short trade. 

Further strengthening our bearish bias, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) is found inside the order block, offering a perfect spot for a short entry as price retraces.

If we zoom out, we also notice something really interesting… Our order block has swept the London Kill Zone’s (and current daily) highs – absorbing even more liquidity, but also failing to close above. This is an added confirmation for our short bias, selling the narrative that Smart Money has pushed prices higher in order to sell with bigger volume. 

Steps for the Trade:

  1. Entry: As the price retraces into the FVG within the bearish order block, we set a sell limit order at the middle of the FVG. This is where the imbalance is most likely to be filled.
  2. Stop-Loss: Place your stop-loss just above the high of the bearish order block, minimising risk while allowing enough room for the trade to play out.
  3. Take-Profit: Target the nearest swing low, which aligns with a liquidity pool where retail stop-losses are likely to be clustered. Remember how Institutional traders often aim for these levels to target retail liquidity. 

Within the New York Kill Zone, our take profit is hit by an aggressive 5-minute candle, which offers an impressive 1:3 risk-to-reward (RR).

Trading Strategy Summary:

  • Entry Point: Enter a short position at the FVG within the bearish order block on the 5-minute chart during the New York kill zone (8:00 AM – 10:00 AM UTC-4).
  • Stop-Loss: Place your stop-loss just above the high of the order block to protect your capital.
  • Profit Target: Set your take-profit at the nearest untested swing low, where institutional traders are likely targeting liquidity.
PROS:  Utilises multiple SMC tools (Order Block + FVG), offers high-probability setups during volatile kill zones and provides excellent risk management.
CONS: If volatility increases beyond expected levels, it may trigger early stop-losses, requiring a good understanding of kill zones and liquidity flows.

Trade Strategy #2: Fibonacci and FVG Entry Model

This strategy shows how Smart Money Concepts (SMC) can be paired with traditional trading tools, like the Fibonacci retracement, to create a simple but effective entry model. 

In this example, we’ll use the EUR/USD 4-hour chart on August 5th, 2024, to demonstrate how a Fair Value Gap (FVG) aligns perfectly with a key Fibonacci level, setting up a high-probability trade.

In higher time frames like the 4-hour, kill zones aren’t as critical. 

However, it’s often interesting to see how limit orders, stop losses, or take profits get triggered within these kill zones – something to keep in mind for future analysis.

We’re in a macro bullish market on EUR/USD. After a brief down move, the market forms a swing low and then aggressively trades upward, taking out the recent high and creating a new higher high. This is our signal to draw the Fibonacci tool.

Steps to Execute the Trade:

  1. Fibonacci Placement: Place the Fibonacci tool using the recent swing low as the 0 level and the new higher high as the 1 level. We will be focusing on the 0.5 level for our entry.
  2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): As price retraces, we notice the 0.5 Fibonacci level lines up perfectly with a large FVG. This gives us a strong confluence area for a bullish entry.
  3. Entry: Set a limit buy order at the Fair Value Gap, ensuring it’s at or below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. This is crucial—your entry should remain within the “bearish half” of the Fibonacci retracement, below the 0.5 level, where institutions are likely to enter orders.
  4. Stop-Loss: Place your stop-loss below the swing low (the 0 Fibonacci level) to minimise risk.
  5. Take-Profit: Target a fixed 2RR, doubling your risk with a profit target based on recent swing levels.

In a few days, our take profit is hit, for an excellent swing trade profiting 1:2 risk-to-reward (RR). Notice how we were filled almost to the tick, and didn’t have to withstand any drawdown! 

Trading Strategy Summary:

  • Entry Point: Enter a long position when the price retraces into the FVG, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in a macro bullish market.
  • Stop-Loss: Place your stop-loss below the swing low or 0 Fibonacci level, ensuring your risk is controlled.
  • Profit Target: Aim for a 2RR fixed target, which allows for a balanced approach to risk/reward.
PROS: Combines Fibonacci and FVG for a double layer of confluence, works well in trending markets, provides clear entry, stop-loss, and profit target.
CONS: May produce fewer setups in choppy markets; if the FVG doesn’t align with the Fibonacci retracement, the trade may lose its edge.

Closing Thoughts on Smart Money Concepts

Smart Money Concepts (SMC) offer retail traders valuable insights into how institutional players manipulate the market. By mastering key SMC principles like liquidity pools, order blocks, and fair value gaps, traders can align their strategies with the “smart money” and make more informed decisions.

However, it’s important to remember that SMC is not foolproof and requires patience, discipline, and continuous learning.

Advantages of Being an SMC Trader

  • Increased Market Insight: You gain a deeper understanding of how institutions move the market and manipulate liquidity.
  • Predictive Edge: SMC provides a framework for predicting price reversals and key market moves based on institutional footprints.
  • Informed Trading Decisions: With SMC, you learn to avoid common retail traps and place your trades with smart money.

Disadvantages of Being an SMC Trader

  • Complexity: SMC can be overwhelming for beginners, with its advanced concepts requiring significant time to master.
  • Uncertainty: SMC is not always a guaranteed strategy, and institutional traders can still outmanoeuvre even well-informed retail traders.
  • Emotional Toll: Trading against the trend or waiting for ideal SMC setups can be mentally challenging and require strong discipline.

FAQs

What is a Smart Money Concept (SMC) in Forex Trading? 

A Smart Money Concept (SMC) refers to any trading strategy based on how institutional traders, or “smart money,” manipulate liquidity and market structure. SMC Forex trading helps retail traders align their strategies with the market moves of major players like banks and hedge funds. By using SMC, traders can identify key areas like order blocks, fair value gaps, and liquidity pools to make more informed trading decisions.

How does SMC help traders understand market sentiment? 

Smart Money Concepts trading offers insights into market sentiment by revealing where institutional traders are likely to enter and exit positions. By studying liquidity pools, fair value gaps, and breaks in market structure, SMC Forex trading allows traders to anticipate shifts in market sentiment, helping them to trade more effectively alongside the “smart money.”

What is a Fair Value Gap in Smart Money Concepts? 

A Fair Value Gap (FVG) in Smart Money Concepts refers to a gap in liquidity on a price chart where institutional traders step in to rebalance the market. FVGs signal imbalances between buyers and sellers, often offering traders opportunities to enter trades as the market fills these gaps. They are a key element in SMC forex trading strategies.

How can I use Smart Money Concepts in my trading strategy? 

Smart Money Concepts can enhance your trading strategy by focusing on institutional trading behaviours such as market structure shifts, liquidity grabs, and fair value gaps. SMC Forex trading strategies often aim to follow the moves of institutional players, allowing retail traders to improve their entries and exits based on these smart money insights.

How does Smart Money Concepts align with market structure? 

Smart Money Concepts revolve around market structure, with a focus on breaks of structure (BOS) and changes of character (CHOCH) to signal trends and reversals. By understanding these shifts in market structure, SMC traders can anticipate when institutions will step in to create or drain liquidity, making it a vital component of successful Forex market trading.

What is the role of market makers in price action trading?

Market makers play a crucial role in price action trading by providing liquidity to the market. They facilitate trades by matching buy and sell orders, often influencing short-term price movements. For traders focused on tracking smart money, understanding how market makers manipulate liquidity is essential. By observing key areas where large orders are placed or withdrawn, traders can align with institutional strategies and refine their price action trading to capture better entry and exit points.

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How Instant Funding Works

Getting started with FXIFY Instant Funding is quick and straightforward. 

Choose from account sizes ranging from $1,000 to $50,000, make a one-time payment, and you’re ready to trade with our capital immediately. There is no lengthy evaluation process or waiting periods – just instant access to the funds you need to trade

Your first payout will be available after the first 14 days of trading. Once this period is completed, you can immediately request your payout and cash out. Subsequent payouts will be processed every 14 days after that.

FXIFY’S Instant Funding Program

Why FXIFY’S Instant Funding is the Future of Prop Trading

FXIFY’s Instant Funding Program redefines traditional prop trading evaluations, where traders face lengthy timelines to prove their skills within predefined rules to get funded. Today, FXIFY eliminates these barriers, offering instant access to funded accounts and empowering traders to start trading immediately.

Here’s why FXIFY’s Instant Funding stands out:

  • Instant Access, Instant Payouts: Trade an FXIFY-funded account from day 1 and start earning immediately.
  • Flexibility and Scalability: Get started with account sizes  ranging from  $1,000 to $50,000
  • No Evaluation Stress: Skip the lengthy evaluation process and immediately access trading capital.

FXIFY’s Instant Funding model is the future of prop trading. It’s the perfect option for confident traders who want to focus on trading and start earning from day one.

Visit our programs page to learn more about the Instant Funding program.

Ready to Trade Funded Capital from Day One? 

Get funded with FXIFY today and start trading on your terms. Choose your account size, make a one-time payment, and gain immediate access to our capital. For confident traders looking to scale, our Instant Funding model offers the perfect opportunity to elevate your trading career. 

Fed’s Final Rate Decision of 2024: Why It Matters

The Federal Reserve is gearing up for its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year, set to take place on 18 December 2024.

At the heart of the discussion: the Fed Funds Rate, which influences borrowing costs, economic activity, and market sentiment worldwide.

With the Fed’s policy decisions shaping everything from mortgage rates to global currency markets, this meeting could signal how the economy will perform as we head into 2025. Will the Fed maintain its current course, opt for a rate cut, or deliver a surprise move?

Market Sentiment: The Numbers Speak

As of 16 December 2024, the CME FedWatch Tool, a key resource for market participants, shows the following probabilities:

  • 97.1% probability of a 25 bps cut to 4.25%-4.50%.
  • 2.9% probability of holding steady at 4.50%-4.75%.

Markets are anticipating a rate cut, but not everyone’s convinced. If the Fed defies expectations, brace for some serious market turbulence.

How the FedWatch Tool Works

The CME FedWatch Tool deciphers data from 30-Day Federal Funds futures to estimate the probability of rate changes. By analysing market pricing, it calculates the odds of potential outcomes, giving traders a real-time gauge of sentiment.

Why It Matters

When the FedWatch Tool points to a likely rate cut, stocks often rally as traders bet on cheaper borrowing costs. If a rate hike seems probable, investors may pull back, expecting tighter financial conditions-a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

When Markets Get Shaken

Market turbulence hits when the Fed’s decision catches traders off guard. If a rate cut is expected but a hike happens instead, stocks can drop, and currencies may swing as investors rush to adjust. Volatility spikes—and so do opportunities for those ready to act.

Smart traders don’t just follow the FedWatch Tool -they plan for all possible outcomes. While understanding its signals is key, being prepared for surprises is what separates winners from the rest in a fast-moving market.

Current Interest Rates Comparison

CurrencyCurrent RateStanceBias
USD4.75%Cautiously favoring rate cutsBearish USD
EUR3.00%Dovish, favoring cutsBearish EUR
GBP4.75%Dovish, recent rate cutBearish GBP
AUD4.35%Hawkish, holding rates steadyBullish AUD
NZD4.25% Neutral, monitoring dataNeutral
JPY0.10%Hawkish, Favouring HikesBullish JPY
CHF0.50%Neutral, stable ratesNeutral
CAD3.25%Dovish, potential rate cutsBearish CAD

What Are the Possible Outcomes?

Scenario 1: The Fed Holds Rates Steady

If the Fed chooses to keep rates at 4.50%-4.75%, it signals confidence that inflation is under control and further tightening isn’t necessary. This decision would align with the broader expectation of stability.

Market Implications:

  • Equities: Sectors like technology, which are sensitive to interest rates, could see a lift.
  • Bonds: Yields may stabilise, offering a predictable environment for fixed-income investors.
  • Currencies: The US dollar would likely hold its ground, with minimal volatility in major currency pairs.

Scenario 2: A 25-Basis-Point Rate Cut

A cut to 4.25%-4.50% would indicate concern over slowing economic growth or labour market softening. While lower rates typically support equities, they could also raise questions about the Fed’s outlook on economic resilience.

Market Implications:

  • Equities:
    A rally in risk assets is possible, though uncertainty about the economic backdrop might temper gains.
  • Bonds:
    Lower rates would likely push bond prices higher, benefiting fixed-income traders.
  • Currencies:
    The US dollar could weaken, creating opportunities in cross-border trades.

Historical Market Reactions to Rate Changes

Understanding past market reactions to rate hikes and cuts can provide valuable context for traders navigating current market conditions.

Output image

This chart highlights how the DXY (USD) and S&P 500 reacted to Federal Reserve rate cuts and hikes in key periods. As shown:

  • 2020 Cuts: The USD weakened within weeks after aggressive pandemic-driven rate cuts, while equities surged on stimulus expectations.
  • 2022-2023 Hikes: The USD strengthened steadily as rate hikes rolled out, while equities faced immediate pressure amid tightening conditions and recession fears.
  • 2024 Mixed Environment: Both markets saw modest moves due to uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path and mixed economic signals.

Traders should note that while end-of-year performance can offer a broad perspective, immediate market responses often occur within hours or days of policy announcements. These reactions are influenced by market expectations, the size of the rate adjustment, and the tone of the Fed’s forward guidance. Being aware of these dynamics helps traders adjust their strategies promptly and capitalise on potential volatility following rate decisions.

What Could Influence the Decision?

Although there’s less than a week remaining, the probabilities could potentially shift dramatically. Several factors are at play:

  1. Economic Data Releases
    Key reports, including inflation indicators (CPI, PPI) and employment figures, will provide clues about the Fed’s potential move.
  2. Fed Communications
    Remarks from Federal Reserve officials in speeches or interviews often offer subtle hints. Traders will be parsing every word for signals. Adding to the anticipation is the scheduled release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on December 12. If inflation figures deviate from expectations, market sentiment could change rapidly, prompting traders to rethink rate hike probabilities and adjust their strategies accordingly.
  3. Global Developments
    Geopolitical events, fluctuations in oil prices, or unexpected slowdowns in international markets could also shape the Fed’s decision.

What’s Next?

The 18 December FOMC meeting is more than just a routine decision – it’s a potential turning point for monetary policy as we head into 2025. Whether the Fed holds steady, cuts rates, or surprises the markets, the ripple effects will be felt across asset classes.

Traders should remain vigilant, use tools like the CME FedWatch Tool to track sentiment, and stay prepared for potential volatility. The countdown has begun – are you ready for the Fed’s final word?

Latest Trading Updates and Exciting New Product Launches

It’s been an incredible year for FXIFY, and as we enter our 20th month of operation, we’ve got some exciting updates to share! From surpassing $27 million in payouts and serving over 180,000 users, to launching new programs and features, we’re proud of what we’ve accomplished. 

But we’re not stopping here. Let’s dive into what’s new and what’s coming next.

FXIFY Futures: Coming Soon!

We’re thrilled to announce the upcoming launch of FXIFY Futures, our fully funded futures program. 

With over 100,000 users already on our waitlist, stay tuned for our Open Beta Launch in the next few weeks – just in time for the holiday season!

If you haven’t yet signed up for early access, now’s the time to join: www.fxifyfutures.com.

Instant Funding: A Game-Changer for Traders

We’re also excited to introduce FXIFY’s Instant Funding program. Set to launch in December, this program lets confident traders skip the evaluation phase entirely and dive straight into a funded account.

Here’s What You Need to Know

  • Account sizes range from $1,000 to $50,000.
  • 50:1 leverage on FX, 20:1 leverage on commodities, 15:1 on indices, and 2:1 on crypto.
  • Up to 80% profit split.
  • No evaluation phase, but with stricter rules, including a max trailing total drawdown of 8%.

This is our most challenging offering to date, but it’s also the fastest way to get funded and grow your trading career. With Instant Funding, you skip the waiting, avoid the risk of failing evaluations, and jumpstart to trading with our capital.

Account Size$1,000$2,500$5,000$10,000$25,000$50,000
Max Drawdown8% Trailing
LeverageUp to 50:1
Performance SplitUp to 80%
Fee$69$119$229$449$899$1749

Updated Rules for 2-Phase Evaluations

Effective November 24th, 5 pm EST, we’re updating our 2-Phase Challenge from a static drawdown to a trailing drawdown.

This change will only apply to new purchases of the 2-Phase Challenge.

While trailing drawdowns are not universally loved, they are becoming the industry standard, particularly for Futures and Instant Funding. 

Here’s why we’re making this shift:

  1. Standardisation Across Programs: As we expand into Futures and Instant Funding, we wanted to better align and standardize our programs and offerings. Trailing drawdowns are the industry standard across Funded Futures, Instant Funding, and 1-Phase challenges, so we are updating our 2-Phase challenges to match. This ensures consistency and clarity for our traders.
  2. Time Management: While most traders follow FXIFY’s rules, we’ve noticed the majority who break our T&Cs purposefully, do so in our 2-Phase Challenges. Monitoring this takes away valuable time and resources that could be better spent on our traders, developing new products such as Instant Funding and Futures, and providing an overall better experience and service for everyone. 
  3. Future Industry Trends: As the prop trading industry evolves, we expect other firms to follow suit.   Our proactive update keeps us ahead of the curve.

In an industry where hidden rules and sudden changes have become all too common, FXIFY is committed to being more transparent than ever. Instead of behind-the-scenes adjustments, we openly communicate updates and align with industry standards to ensure a better experience for our traders.

Once Again, We Thank You for Trusting Us as Your #1 Prop Firm

We wish you all the best as you enter the holiday season and New Year, and we’re more excited than ever! With FXIFY Futures, Instant Funding, and the updated 2-Phase Challenge, it’s never been a better time to join our growing community of traders.

Ready to take your trading career to the next level? 

We’re bringing the best and brightest traders together.
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